By Ellen Hambuba
The International Monetary Fund – IMF – says Zambia’s economy is on track for stronger growth next year, supported by a rebound in agriculture and mining, alongside improving investor confidence.
IMF Zambia Country Representative Eric Lautier says growth is now projected at 5.2 percent in 2025, driven by a strong harvest, rising mining output and improved performance in services such as ICT, transport, manufacturing and finance.
He says the agricultural sector is expanding rapidly following last year’s low base, while mining production rose by 18.4 percent by August as operations at key mines strengthened.
Mr. Lautier says Zambia recorded 4.9 percent real GDP growth in the first half of 2025, up from 3.8 percent during the same period last year.
However, he notes that persistent electricity shortages continue to weigh on non-mining sectors, prompting the IMF to revise its growth projection from 5.8 percent earlier anticipated during the fifth review.
2026 Outlook
Growth in 2026 is forecast at 5.6 percent, supported by rising output from Mopani, KCM and Kansanshi, and sustained capital inflows into the mining sector.
The IMF says foreign-exchange liquidity in commercial banks has improved, with mining inflows supporting the kwacha.
Inflation and Kwacha Performance
Mr. Lautier says inflation continues to ease, with food inflation dropping to 14.1 percent in October, while non-food inflation fell to 8.7 percent.
He says the kwacha strengthened by 16 percent by the end of October as foreign-exchange inflows improved and investor confidence picked up.
Debt, Markets and Investment Climate
Although Zambia still cannot access international markets due to ongoing debt restructuring, the IMF says investor sentiment toward the country is improving.
Yields on government bonds have fallen from 34 percent in 2021 to around 18 percent, while spreads on Zambia’s Eurobonds have dropped sharply—from 3,000 to about 350 basis points—reflecting lower perceived risk.
Favourable Commodity Prices
Mr. Lautier says Zambia is benefiting from rising global prices for copper and gold, along with lower fuel prices, creating a favourable window for reforms.
He stresses the need for continued domestic revenue mobilisation and transparent taxation of natural resources to ensure mining revenues benefit the wider population.
Mr. Lautier adds that the IMF is finalising Zambia’s sixth review under the Extended Credit Facility, with full details to be released once a staff-level agreement is reached and the report is published in January.
